Thursday, 8 January 2015

How the market doesn't work

The market is a complex beast-- but in the end -- it all boils down to supply and demand. If the buyers overwhelm the sellers, then the market will rise; and vice-versa.

There is a belief among some market commentators that everything in the market is connected and if only they follow a few correlations then they should make money. Following the beliefs of these people will not only cost you money in the short-term, but will continue to put you on the wrong side of the markets forever.

The sad reality of those who have called a bear market since 2009, is that they were dead wrong; likely have no skin-in-the-game to the short-side; have done nothing to adjust their expectations to the current trends; and worse, don't even have history on their side.

To continue looking for reasons for why a continued bull-or-bear market is false, is simply a childish, loser mentality for investing that too many of us fall for. You are either on the right side or the wrong side of the market move and the longer a trend continues on the medium-to-longer-term time-frame, the harder it is to change that trend. Buying dips -- or selling rallies-- in the direction of the ultimate trend is the safest and easiest way to make money.

Look back on any bull market and you will see areas of exuberant market behaviour. Even when markets have stretched beyond fundamentals and defied correlations, there is still a reason that demand is higher than supply. You can fight this all the way but you won't be fighting it to the bank.

Quit sulking about price action and learn how to use it to your advantage.

No comments:

Post a Comment