Friday, 5 December 2014

Technical/Fundamental combination in USD/JPY

The recent bullish price action in USD/JPY has been caused by the BOJ's announcement that they will continue their QE program indefinitely. This combined with the FED ending theirs, makes upside plays the only option in USD/JPY.

The monthly chart below highlights the break of a very important trend/channel line.
The 123 and 135 areas are the first initial targets. This is an example of how to put together fundamental and technical pictures. If you trade blind on charts alone, you only get half the story. Comparing the two economies, the U.S.A. is in a much stronger position and I would not be surprised if we tested the high of the late 90s over the next 2 years approximately.

(Note the gold line on the monthly. I've highlighted an instance where a short position is safer. Price was still in a downtrend and struggled at the 120 level. Once back under the 50 ma, it stayed there for 5 years on a monthly basis).

The fundamental and technical picture make this a long only play for now. I would only buy on pullbacks however, by reverting to the weekly chart for entry.

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