Tuesday, 2 December 2014

COT as a contrarian tool

The Commitment of traders (COT) report is released each week by CFTC for futures positioning and open interest.

The report can be used to determine exhausted trends and potential turns. The following chart of price also shows the positioning of commercial interests (blue line), large speculators (black) and small speculators (red).

The recent collapse in oil prices can be attributed to the record highs in speculative open positions going into July 14. This extreme amount of long positions meant there was nobody left to buy. When the market began to turn, a rush to the exit was set in motion at various levels. 

Many would have cut losses under 100, then 90, 80... This will continue until the last seller. At that point we will turn up again. 

Note that commercials have started buying again. Commercials represent hedgers etc. They tend to be on the ride side of the turn as a look back at previous highs and lows will show.

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